Future Scenarios Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1395 (March 2016 – March 2017)

Ayandeban prepares and publishes an annual report on Iran future at the beginning of each Iranian year. Our third report entitled “Future Scenarios Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1395 (March 2016 – March 2017)” can be reached here in Persian. Below you can read the report abstract in English.


Iran’s futures studies 1395 (March 2016 – March 2017) is the Ayandeban’s third annual report about the future challenges facing Iran in the forthcoming year. This year five methodological stages have been passed to construct final scenarios: (1) Identifying Issues and Variables, (2) Rating Issues and Variables, (3) Morphological Analysis, (4) Cross Impact Balance (CIB) Analysis for A+ Variables, and (5) Scenario Building.

The main approach to scenario building was Cross-Impact-Balance Analysis (CIB). We used ScenarioWizard software that developed in ZIRIUS (Stuttgart Research Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies).

In Iran’s futures studies 1395, after identifying the variables and the scores of uncertainty and importance, seven key variables were selected in order to create the scenarios of the future of Iran 1395. Accordingly, 1458 scenarios were built, and the most consistent scenarios were selected, regarding the quality indicators. Five scenarios were considered as acceptable and coherent scenarios with full consistency and stability of inner instructors. In addition, five other scenarios with the inconsistency score of 1, which is an acceptable score, were contained among the future scenarios. Similarly, eight scenarios among 24 scenarios with the inconsistency score of two, were included. These eight scenarios were chosen due to their considerable differences with other scenarios, in order to represent the variety and diversity of the plausible possible futures of Iran 1395.

The 18 selected scenarios and their place in the squares of consistency are shown in following picture.

 

Iran’s 1395 Scenarios

We also determined level of desirability for seat scenario. Total level of desirability for scenarios creates a spectrum from desirable to undesirable. The level of desirability for scenarios is presented in the spectrum of desirability in the following picture (desirable (green), undesirable (red), middle (yellow).

 

Desirability Spectrum of Iran’s 1395 Scenarios

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