Future Challenges Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1394 (March 2015 – March 2016)

Ayandeban prepares and publishes an annual report on Iran future at the beginning of each Iranian year. Our second report entitled “Future Challenges Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1394 (March 2015 – March 2016)” can be reached here in Persian. Below you can read the report abstract in English.

‘Iran’s futures studies’ research is accomplished to examine trends, challenges and probable variables ahead, by gathering and organizing citizens and experts’ viewpoints, then, representing it in order to make readiness for a variety of possible, probable and desirable futures ahead of Iran’s society. To achieve this purpose, four steps is took including of

1) general polls to identify variables,

2) rating variables by selected experts,

3) holding expert panels to identify cross impacts among variables,

4) software and statistical analyses of cross impact matrix.

After identifying the first 100 variables, it is used ‘Structural Analysis’ method and MICMAC software considered one of the ‘Strategic Foresight’ tools, in order to integrated analysis of cross impacts among variables.

Iran’s 1394 MICMAC Map

Finding of this research indicate that the most significant variables of Iran in 1394sh (March 2015 – March 2016) having the most effectiveness and dependencies over the other variables simultaneously, include ‘Social Capital’, ‘Policital Conflicts of Power Flows’ and ‘Islamic Consultative Assembly Election’, though ‘the Destination of Nuclear File’ is the most paramount one ahead.

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